In the last week…

Here are three news stories about the Russian-Baltic-Swedish scenario, just from the last week:

1. Oct 24, 2014: Russian submarine off Stockholm frustrates Swedish navy

2. Oct 30, 2014: Russian aircraft buzz Sweden, Estonia, and Finland

3. Oct 31, 2014: Russian military vessel spotted off coast of Latvia

The Baltic sea

The upshot here is that the Baltic, like the Mediterranean, is a fluid space where multiple languages, traditions, nationalities and powers intersect. A glance at our third map shows the rather tense scenario that prevails in the aftermath of the breakup of Soviet power in the early 1990s: terrified of Russian aggression, the Baltic states—Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia—joined NATO (the Cold War alliance of anti-Soviet powers) as quickly as possible, and devote a significant fraction of their GDP to the military. Sweden does not belong to NATO, but is generally friendly to it, especially given Russia's long history of military incursions into Swedish waters (the Soviets violated Swedish territorial waters dozens of times in the 1980s). Stalin not only imported Russian people into the Baltic states as quickly as possible during Soviet times, but Russia has continued—like in Ukraine—to foment dissension and social unrest between Russian minorities in those states and the ethnic Baltics. Almost 30% of Latvia's population is Russian today (down from a high of near 50%), and almost half the population of Riga is Russian, including the mayor.

Note particularly the presence of a small part of Russia between Poland and Lithuania, called Kaliningrad Oblast. Formerly part of Germany, Russia has never relinquished its control of the region, right in the middle of NATO-allied nations. It is Russia's only ice-free port in the Baltic, and they have repeatedly threatened to install nuclear weapons there. (Trivia: Kaliningrad is home to over 90% of the world's amber!)

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